Election Season: Iowa Predictions

My predictions for the Iowa caucuses. Join me on twitter tonight to discuss the results!

Democrats

1. Obama 28%
2. Clinton 27%
3. Edwards 24%
4. Richardson 11%

Republicans

1. Huckabee 27%
2. Romney 25%
3. McCain 15%
4. Paul 9%
5. Thompson 8%

Quick thoughts: I think (and hope) Obama pulls out a victory, but it will be so close that the Clintons and the media will spin it as a tie. I actually wish that Romney would defeat Huckabee, but I think all of the national media scorn of Huckabee, Romney's relentless attacks, and Huckabee's ability to cast the election as David vs. Goliath, will fire up the evangelical base to send a message. I'm hoping the bigger story is McCain's strong 3rd, after barely campaigning there, but there's always a possibility that Paul or even Thompson (though hard to imagine) could be the surprise.

Comments

[Scott Magdalein]

Although I'm not a 100% Ron Paul fan, I share your sentiments that he's a phenomenon. His web star status is about to show us something very interesting about the virtual world.

Can web fame translate into real-world results? Were Paul supporters really spamming online voting? Are the media-covered polls as accurate and dependable as everyone thinks?

He won't win it, but he'll beat McCain, I think, which will surprise all the media folks.

[Andy Knight]

Brian - I've been enjoying seeing the transformation of leaveitbehind into a political commentary blog. Lots of great thoughts and links! Keep it up.

[Brian Bailey]

Scott: It's going to great to finally see what Paul's true support is in the only competition that actually matters. If he hits third tonight, it will be a pretty big story.

Andy: Thanks a lot for the feedback. I'm still undecided about the long-term focus, but it's been fun to spend a few weeks in the political trenches.

[Terry Storch]

Brain, great post! I love your thoughts and ideas....I will be following your Twitter tonight for sure. I have totally gone NUTS over all of this the past few weeks and I am having a blast right now. XMRadio is amazing to follow this.

I am taking your lead, and crafting my predictions right now. Thanks for the great idea.

Finally...I am very interested in learning more from you about your support of Obama and McCain. Wow, great guys but SO different. I look forward to reading more from you.